#title The Unabomber’s Self-Propagation Theory
#author Mbe
#date 25-11-2025
#lang en
#pubdate 2025-11-26T09:43:45.145Z
#topics Ted Kaczynski, criticism and critique, sociology, systems theory
#source <[[https://www.thetedkarchive.com/uploads/tedkarchive/m-t-mbe-the-unabomber-s-self-propagating-theory-1.pdf][www.thetedkarchive.com/uploads/tedkarchive/m-t-mbe-the-unabomber-s-self-propagating-theory-1.pdf]]>
#ATTACH m-t-mbe-the-unabomber-s-self-propagating-theory-1.pdf
*** Abstract
This paper provides a critical examination of Theodore Kaczynski’s anti-technology ideology, arguing that although his core theory of “self-propagating systems” offers a logically compelling critique of technological society, it suffers from a fundamental epistemological flaw: it functions as a tautology that retrospectively labels successful entities without providing predictive or causal mechanisms, and it consequently leads to several paradoxes. In it, I attempt to demonstrate that this theoretical framework—which posits that natural selection among complex systems inevitably leads to global collapse—is not a synthetic a priori truth but a post-hoc description that cannot be falsified. I further argue that his theory as a whole is insufficiently supported by argumentation. In the final section, I provide a logical explanation of how one might scrutinize these ideas.
*** Introduction
Theodore John Kaczynski in his early childhood was an exceptionally gifted young individual who, from an early age, became fascinated with a hunter-gatherer lifestyle and would, with his brother David Kaczynski, spend much of his time reading various books and playing in the wilderness. Fast forward to the early 1960s, he would graduate from Harvard, then gain his PhD from the University of Michigan with an exceptional paper examining boundary functions and later go on to become an assistant professor of mathematics at Berkeley, where he would come to teach for about two years. However, his opposition to technology had already crystallized; as he later stated, “My last year at Harvard was the year when I definitely decided I was against technology.”[1] He resigned from his teaching position at Berkeley and, before moving to the wilderness of Montana, set off in his car with a plan to murder a scientist.[2] In Montana, his radicalization intensified from a philosophical opposition into a vengeful hatred against technology after he became aware of the destruction of the forest. During this time he identified himself as the *Freedom Club*[3] and would come to be referred to by the FBI as the person behind various mail bombs in the Chicago Bay Area as the “Unabomber,” a combination of “university and airline bomber,” a name by which Kaczynski later came to become widely known. After a twenty-year campaign, in 1995, Ted Kaczynski would send his manifesto, railing against modern technological society, to The New York Times and The Washington Post. He promised to desist from terrorism on condition that they publish his manifesto, so threatening continued violence they could have stopped if they didn’t.[4] The FBI, after a close examination, would come to recommend to the news outlets to publish his manifesto in the hope that somebody would come to identify the paper. After the manifesto was fully printed in April 1995, it was read by members of Ted Kaczynski’s very own family who would recognize his style of arguments and word choices and would later contact the police, which led to his arrest. After Ted Kaczynski’s arrest, he would later be sentenced to life in prison for firstdegree murder and obstruction of properties and other misdemeanors. During this time he would come to hold various correspondences with other environmentalists and journalists and come to write other papers like *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*[5], which was rushed in 2016 due to copyright issues. In this work, he would come to perfect his argumentation and elaborate his reasoning on why we are approaching worldwide destruction and why technology must be stopped.
However, despite the ethical considerations of his means of propagating his ideas by means of violence, this is not a condemnation of Ted. All I’m doing here is examining his line of argumentation carefully. I think this is necessary because I think it’s necessary to address his ideas on a more serious level—especially as those ideas are becoming increasingly mainstream, recently with the television series *Manhunt: Unabomber*[6] and the movie *Ted K*[7], and with the promised release of the next edition, I believe it is then necessary to take his ideas on a more serious level which has hereto not been done as extensively from a neutral standpoint. The only people I’ve been able to find who engaged in serious discussion with Ted Kaczynski himself were David Skrbina, who for a long time held a tight correspondence and contributed to *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*[8], and Ted’s long-time Spanish correspondent, Ultimo, who has published a critique of *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*. However, due to Ultimo steel-manning these ideas, I do not believe it is really a critique in a more serious manner.[9] Another reason is the ethical implication which his epistemology implies. Ted famously concluded after a long examination on what he calls the self-propagation theory that an objective revolution is necessary, which has serious ethical meanings in terms of the derived notions Ted would come to develop, which not only shows this is a universal matter by the necessary response. Furthermore, I believe from a serious standpoint that Ted Kaczynski’s ideas are worthy of discussion instead of condemning them by his acts of violence alone. It is clear that Ted spent a majority of his time carefully laying down his line of argumentation and developed these ideas over years while still being at Harvard until later moving to Montana, where he would come to spend even more time reading various critical authors like Jacques Ellul, whom he became obsessed with.[10] So I believe to condemn his actions because he was a madman is intellectual dishonesty and would likewise mean that we shouldn’t take authors like Karl Marx and other political authors seriously.
*** His Core Argument
In our discussion of Ted Kaczynski’s work, his most central concept is his theory of natural selection as it applies to what he calls “complex systems.” He begins by introducing the concept of a “self-propagating system” (or “self-prop system” for short), which is a system that tends to promote its own survival and propagation. He states that a self-prop system does this by either 1) increasing its own size and power, or 2) giving rise to a new system that possesses its distinct traits.
Kaczynski shows that these systems are closely related to biological organisms, where groups of organisms can constitute self-prop systems—for example, a colony of ants or a pack of wolves. For humans, he concludes we see a similar pattern in nations, corporations, unions, political parties, and even distinct entities like subcultures.
He then establishes a relationship where any system, whether it propagates or not, is a functional part of a larger component. He calls these “subsystems” and “supersystems.” For instance, an individual human is a member of a party, which is then organized into a larger political party.
Kaczynski begins his core thesis by stating that the principle of natural selection is present in any environment and can be demonstrated as follows:
Those self-propagating systems having the traits that suit them to survive and propagate themselves tend to survive and propagate themselves better than other self-propagating systems.
— *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*[11]
He provides examples to support this first logical step. For instance, kingdoms that clear the most land for agricultural use have a clear advantage because they can support a larger population than their rivals. This, in turn, means they can exercise greater military power. Likewise, if a kingdom restrains itself from excessive forest clearing, it would be at a direct disadvantage and could be eliminated by a more powerful self-prop system. Consequently, the environment will become dominated by systems that maximize their immediate output. A system must often prioritize short-term goals for its immediate survival and competitive edge, even at the expense of long-term sustainability.
Natural selection favors systems that maximize their immediate advantage. Long-term consequences (like environmental collapse) are irrelevant if they don’t impact short-term propagation.
— *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*[12]
Furthermore, with this emphasis on short-term advantage, he argues that any environment dominated by self-prop systems will favor specific traits that prove most effective at propagation over time. According to Kaczynski, we observe that natural selection, over a period, will favor the subsystems that prevail the most within the given opportunities of their supersystem.
This fierce competition optimizes itself by processing information. To operate with maximum advantage within a given environment, a system must receive a vast amount of inputs from a region. As technology advances, this region expands.
Technological advancements in transportation and communication constantly expand the possible “playing field.” Natural selection will inevitably produce SPSs that grow to the maximum possible size, leading to a world dominated by a few global super-systems (global corporations, superpowers).
— *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*[13]
Moreover, Kaczynski suggests we are speaking of a singular “world-system,” where everything on Earth is interconnected. This leads to his first conclusion: the global supersystem becomes so complex and interconnected that a failure in one subsystem can trigger a catastrophic chain reaction. Furthermore, the competition between global self-prop systems, armed with “super technology,” pushes the Earth’s systems beyond their limits, leading to the potential for a mass die-off.
*** The Epistemological Flaw
Kaczynski’s core thesis is centrally logical, and it is difficult to deny his thought. He is certainly right in that we can speak of systems in terms of analysis. This approach is common in sociology; most authors begin with an object and define the system in terms of that very object. A similar approach is seen with Ted Kaczynski, who identifies an object, i.e., a complex system, and then labels the surrounding network as the system. This approach is not new. French sociologist Hamon shows us by saying a system is an ensemble of parts or subsystems which interact in such a way that components tend to change slowly enough to be treated as constants. These can be called structures. However, Hamon, who is part of the general system theory, does this by identifying a series of feedback mechanisms and formal system properties which are independent of a given system’s success, and by a state of variables and inputs, which are a set of measurable quantities (in this case, population) to describe a system at a given time.[14] He does this by establishing a close historical account of a given set of functions by emphasizing his research on the quantifiable leap, such as feedback loops. In contrast, Ted Kaczynski merely does this by loosely labeling a given period in terms of competition in which the best suited come to dominate over a period. This might seem like a powerful thing, but it quickly shows us its own flaws. While a thinker like Hamon can establish distinct laws, the self-prop theory can only establish itself through a formal apparatus of how this competition will unfold by merely pointing to power of some kind. This is a big problem because nowhere does his theory actually disprove itself; it cannot label anything in terms of why it lost or how it lost. For example, regarding his own example of a kingdom, if said kingdom adapts a means to an end, it is labeled as “advantageous,” but if it doesn’t, it is labeled as disadvantaged. We can label this a logical tautology, which can be formalized as follows:
| Let *SPS(x)* | denote | *x* is a self-propagating system |
| Let *P(x)* | denote | *x* propagates itself |
Then, from Kaczynski’s own self-prop theory, P1 defines a self-propagating system as one that promotes its own survival and propagation
The principle of natural selection is operative not only in biology, but in any environment in which self-propagating systems are present.
— *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*[15]
P1 then states that natural selection favors those systems “having the traits that suit them to survive and propagate themselves.” This might seem fine on the surface and it seems ted , but the theory does not commit itself to identifying which traits are best selected in an a priori manner. It can be formalized as: *SPS(x) ↔ P(x)* This means that if we classify x as a given self-prop system, then it must propagate itself in a given environment, and likewise, if x propagates itself, then we must label it as a self-propagating system. For observation, this can be illustrated as follows:
| SPS(x) | P(x) | SPS(x) ↔ P(x) | Result |
| T | T | T | Tautology holds |
| F | F | T | Tautology holds |
An example of this Table 2 application’s would be that we can make a logical observation of a company like Microsoft, which has persisted. Then we must classify it through this very label as a self-prop system, and we must then explain its persistence by identifying traits and labeling it as a self-propagating system. But traits are equated to survival and propagation as per P51. This means that natural selection favors systems by traits. We can define these traits as follows:
| Let *T(x)* | denote | *x* has traits that suit it to survive |
What this means in reality is that T(x) is directly inferred from P(x), as “survive and propagate” has the same distinct meanings. So we can conclude that if P(x) is observed to be true in a given situation, then T(x) would also be assumed true: T(x) → P(x), and if likewise P(x) is observed to be false, then we can also logically conclude that the selected trait failed, so T(x) would be false: P(x) → T(x).
I always put my outdoor activities first… I did a great deal of reading of first-hand accounts of Indiana Forest Indians… The accounts I read of men who lived with the Indians… seem to indicate that many eastern forest groups had a very free and individualistic kind of life… Small groups of hunters might wander off into the forest for long periods, obeying only their own sweet will. — *1979 autobiography*[29]This early fixation on a life of radical freedom, governed only by one’s “own sweet will,” provided the foundational ideal for his later work. He later formalized this personal yearning into a theoretical concept while writing his manifesto during his time in Lincoln, Montana.
I argue that the most important single maladaptation involved derives from the fact that our present circumstances deprive us of the opportunity to experience the power process properly. In other words, we lack freedom as the term is defined in ISAIF, §94. — *Letter to David Skrbina*[30]However, his idealization was not without its own internal contradictions. As early as 1979, he had written in his journal:
In any case, even the most primitive society carries in it the seeds of what I consider evil, since all societies have the potential for eventual “progress” toward civilization. Thus I am more inclined to wish that the human race would become extinct. Now, considering hunting and gathering as an economic form — this I do idealize. By this I mean that I would rather make my living by hunting, gathering plant foods, and making my own clothing, implements, etc., than in any other way I can think of. Here I do have some personal experience to go on. — *1979 journal*[31]Thus, what begins as a romanticized personal ideal becomes the unargued cornerstone of his anti-technology philosophy. The “self-propagation theory” and his conclusions serve to rationalize this deeply held value, which was rooted less in formal logic than in his early obsession with a primitive way of life and a subsequent, profound nihilism. *** Conclusion I have in this paper sought to give a concrete examination of Ted Kaczynski’s self-propagation theory from a logical and epistemological standpoint, as articulated in *Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How*. My central argument is that, despite its initial appearance of rigorous logic, his overarching theoretical framework constitutes a fundamental epistemological failure. This failure stems from its reliance on a tautological core, which ultimately collapses into an unsubstantiated Stoic-tinged ethical lens, where technology is axiomatically deemed bad and a primitive state is deemed good. Consequently, the entire worldview and ethical conclusions Kaczynski derives are, at best, highly questionable from a scientific standpoint and remain unsupported by robust, independent argumentation. My challenge to Kaczynski’s thesis is not merely an academic exercise in logic-chopping. It strikes at the very foundation of his project. If the self-propagation theory is not a synthetic a priori truth about the universe but a tautological description of observed outcomes, then its predictive and explanatory power is illusory. It cannot tell us why a system will succeed or fail beforehand; it can only label it as having or lacking “advantageous traits” after the fact. This renders the theory useless as a tool for formulating a reliable revolutionary strategy, as it offers no causal levers to pull, only post-hoc justifications for historical events. A revolution built on such a foundation is not guided by a scientific understanding of social dynamics but is rather a leap of faith, rationalized by a flawed model. Furthermore, this epistemological shortcoming exposes the deep-seated contradiction in Kaczynski’s work. He presents his argument as a cold, objective analysis of systemic inevitabilities, yet this analysis is ultimately in service of a pre-existing, deeply personal value: a romanticized ideal of absolute, “Stoic” freedom. The self-propagation theory functions as a naturalistic myth, a grand narrative designed to lend the air of scientific inevitability to what is, at its heart, a profound subjective yearning. The theory does not lead him to the conclusion that technology is bad; rather, his prior conviction that technology is bad leads him to construct a theory that appears to justify that conclusion on a systemic level. My recommendation for future eco-radicals who find Kaczynski’s diagnosis appealing is that they must subject his ideas to a far more rigorous standard than he himself provided. Before his polemical conclusions can be adopted as a basis for action, his followers must undertake one of two essential tasks. First, they could seek to rationalize his core premises on a serious philosophical level, moving beyond the Stoic-inspired romanticism to establish a robust, argued ethical foundation for why absolute, pre-technological freedom should be the supreme and non-negotiable value of human society. This would involve engaging with moral philosophy to defend this position against other compelling values like wellbeing, compassion, and the pursuit of knowledge, rather than simply assuming its primacy. Alternatively, and more critically, they must demonstrate that his “self-propagation theory” can point to distinct, independent sociological factors that are causally prior to observed outcomes. The theory must be elevated from a tautological description of what did happen to a predictive model that can explain what will happen based on measurable inputs and variables—such as specific resource thresholds, quantifiable social cohesion metrics, or defined information-processing capacities. Until such a case has been seriously established through empirical sociological research, Kaczynski’s work remains a provocative but unverified hypothesis, not a proven scientific basis for action. *** Acknowledgments I wish to extend my profound gratitude to Theo Slade, whose insightful contributions were instrumental to the development of this work, and Jolly Swagman for providing insightful sources. *** References